Vintage Observations…

Find a home in our market that most resembles new construction circa the early 2000’s. Tough to do. It’s almost as if the vintage 80’s stretched into the late 90’s, even into the early 2000’s. Until in closer to 2010 where more modern architecture showed up, materials started to change significantly in their appearance, and ultimately there was a fresh feel.

Active market sits at 475…

355 built in or before 2016.
120 built in 2017, 2018, or yes 2019.

This is Maple Grove, Osseo, Brooklyn Park, Champlin, and Brooklyn Center.

Market Observation…

If you’ve been looking at houses you know – there are a lot of vacant properties out there. This makes for a very interesting market dynamic. Depending on your specific neighborhood it can have a dramatic impact on price. Contact us today for more information on the specific market development in your area.

Single family Champlin…

What’s more normal than a classic 80’s split?  In Champlin as of late, that house, with just a little bit of elbow grease will fetch you $244,000.  There’s a few like that less than that, but you’ll have to re-floor and do something to be feeling sporty in your kitchen or bathroom.  A little bit of work goes a long way, so much so that, this classic model won’t press $220 when it reeks of the 80’s and not a modern improvement in sight, even if it is neat and clean.  A faux wall here, new flooring there, and otherwise a few fixtures, spend five make 15.  But then again we’re headed into frozen ground.

Back at it…

The market analysis you’ll find here now pertains to 5 cities: Maple Grove, Osseo, Champlin, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center. We’re diving deep into market trends in our local community, getting much more involved, and look forward to sharing knowledge and insight that will benefit those we serve as well as the communities we serve in. There were 18 sales this past day and a half in our market. Slower. Much different than this spring. There are currently 435 homes available for sale with no contingencies in our market. As much as low inventory is constantly talked about – that’s not a bad number to pick from. 46 of those are under $200,000, so 11% is ‘affordable’. 157 of those are above $400,000, or 36%. So if you call the middle class today $200k to $400k I guess that leaves 53% of the inventory. We’ve come up with an on/off ratio, a simple thing that tells you how many houses are on off the market relative to how many are on the market. So here you go… I like to look at this simply to follow the trend, things can change pretty quickly…

Maple Grove 23% – 49 off / 216 on
Osseo 67% – 2 off / 1 on
Brooklyn Park 29% – 37 off / 127 on
Brooklyn Center 29% – 14 off / 48 on
Champlin 26% – 12 off / 47 on

Follow Up…

Following up on just how hot the market is, let’s look at it lately… In Maple Grove, since April 1st there were 85 single family homes listed since April 1st. Of those 18 are in pending status today. Of the remaining 67 Active listings either available or in their inspection window, 18 sold in the first week. So that’s 42%. That’s pretty much as hot as it gets. The condition of the inventory has been improving, but 42% of the homes that come on the market are not in above average condition. So digging in deeper here the market is continuing to intensify. Hopefully new listings will curb this trend and bring things more back into balance.

Just how hot is the market?

Let’s look at Maple Grove, just as an example… And let’s narrow our focus to Active properties, meaning either available or in inspection window, just to see how quickly homes have been selling. We hear so much about the frenzy that’s out there, but it can be hard to find out the deeper reality. In Maple Grove there are 173 properties available for sale or in their inspection window. Here’s a look at how quickly those that went to inspection went to inspection: 1 day = 8 2 days = 4 3 days = 6 4 days = 4 5 days = 4 6 days = 2 8 to 14 days = 7 14 to 21 days = 1 21 to 45 days = 3 46 days or longer = 3 Let’s call a quick sale one that goes from Active to Inspection those that happen within a week. In Maple Grove as of late that happened 28 times out of a possible 173. So 16% of the time. So one or two times out of ten. A frenzy? When it does happen quick, at least recently in Maple Grove, it happens more often than not in that first week, 28 out of 42 times. Interesting… Of course we only go deeper from there even when looking at the individual properties, price ranges, and other data that helps us to better understand the market and make good real estate decisions.

Big week for the spring market

This week, in hindsight, will be very telling for this years spring market… Listing activity behaved predictably up until this point and with our recent storm it leaves us wondering how many folks were about to keep in step and list their homes but decided to wait a week or two… Either way, given what happened activity wise in the past few months, there is no middle ground this week, even a year to date weekly average activity level will signify a weaker inventory overall headed into the spring than expected. One would expect a strong push this week.

Activity seemingly more erratic, more updates comming soon…

Activity lately seems to be more erratic than earlier in the year. Maybe that’s just spring refusing to show itself. We’re undergoing a website redesign and have several new and useful informational pieces that will be a part of that, which will add a tremendous amount of depth to our analysis. We anticipate our revision to be online and up to date by the end of May

Now all we need is warm weather and a few decisions…

Inventory has demonstrated the first sign of proven consistent upturn into the spring market. It hasn’t been overwhelming but each of the past three weeks has seen a day with a significant number of new listings. The edge hasn’t been taken off yet, sellers still hear the media surge of low inventory and high prices, as well they should, but the age of the envelope is beginning to diminish. Sellers that ride the high price wave are on the verge of irrational decisions, and are asking for unreasonable terms at just the same time as leverage is beginning to go back to buyers, albeit very slowly and incrementally. With just a slight push more in inventory, a break in the weather, and a few decisions by those not in need of long term care and determining if they’ll stay in Minnesota or not, we could be back to a somewhat healthy market very soon. If the trend continues sellers might act more rationally and buyers might not be so rushed in just a few weeks time.

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